Read the “Lord, Almighty” NYpost.com article. Very interesting. I’m a stats guy, so here are a few more points that bode well for LOTR: FOTR’s chances of winning best picture.
1. The movie receiving the most nominations has won best picture for the past 9 years.
2. In the past 20 years (I was too lazy to go back farther), the movie receiving the most nominations won best picture 90% of the time.
[Caveat: the two exceptions are 1981 and 1991…so, 2001?]
3. In the past 20 years, when only one of the movies up for best picture has double digit nominations, it wins 87.5% of the time.
4. In the past 20 years, when a movie has 3+ nominations more than its nearest competitor (it’s happened 6 times), it wins 100% of the time.